(I got another tell today, asking $19 for a million gil. It was $48 from a similar source in February.)
I've had various people question whether it is Supply Up or Demand Down.
If demand were down, eventually, they would give it up and go on to something else (an MMO which is more permissive to RMT, perhaps??).
Especially with the number of RMT tells that people are getting (and you can't think that these people can get to every prospective "customer" character with every RMT tell-er), you'd have to think that a massive number of characters would be required.
So, I got to thinking after I saw the comments by ixthyse, after he proposed that some of the explosion in Water Crystal prices is due to the necessity of Silent Oils for ACP 11 (he'd be right, but, unless you're going up twice anyway for the fight, why not just do as I did and use Dancer for Spectral Jig to save a few gil?)...
One of the major hypotheses out there (which ties in not only the runners in Bastok Mines NPCing God knows how much stuff -- and you've heard about this a lot if you've read up on some of this -- but also a massive infrastructure of characters, apparently) is a gardening scheme.
Basically, there are many hundreds of characters (probably on each server) who are gardening for Wildgrass, and, given the right situation, could yield upwards of five to six digits if their luck is right.
Multiply that by an explosive number of characters, and you can see why gil is now down to about $20-25 a million for these illegal fuckers.
So I got to thinking, as I said, and came up with the following situation:
These RMT schemes are hyper-sophisticated, and they have people with them who are alert to what Square-Enix is trying.
Instead of Square-Enix' one-tree approach (the RMT PWNER 1.337), these guys have TWO trees. One for the gil, and one for the farming of the gil. The RMT PWNER would have to go up one further level to basically find out where the people selling the gil got the gil, and, at least to this point, it does not sound like they have been successful.
For this is what I've been able to discern is the life of a Dispose-a-Character:
-- Dispose-a-Character is born, using the trial system. No credit card appears to be required -- for, if one were, that might be the source of such massive CC fraud that the entire payment system for FFXI might be kiboshed.
-- Dispose-a-Character receives necessary gardening materials from the previous Dispose-a-Character, who then completes their cycle.
-- Dispose-a-Character then continues the cycle of farming gil -- not only through gardening, but probably through other means as well.
-- Once Dispose-a-Character begins to run out of time on his/her trial account, Dispose-a-Character then hands their stuff off to the next Dispose-a-Character tier...
-- And then begins to advertise for the RMT, gets GM'ed, banned, etc.
Do you see how useless this is unless Square-Enix can smash this criminal enterprise, especially if hundreds of such characters are involved per server at any one time??
(This might also explain the bullshit over the "2,000,000 characters!!" claim that Square-Enix made a while back.)
It's time to go beyond banning the characters, but banning the people behind them (as I said back in January with the massive bannings!!!)...